Keen’s Predictions for 2012
As the final hours of 2011 slowly fade away, it’s time for me to post my predictions for 2012! I didn’t do well in my predictions for this year. A few of them were spot on, a couple were a year too early, and some were not even close. Hopefully I can manage to predict better this year.
1. Subscriptions will survive. Free to play will not conquer the market, but will withdraw slowly as it becomes even more clear that, as Greg Zeschuck of Bioware said, free to play games can’t match the size or scale of a subscription based game.
2. PC Gaming will gain further traction. 2011 was very kind to PC gaming. In fact, PC games saw great exclusives and even improved upon console ports. 2012 will simply continue the upward trend.
3. Mobile gaming will suffer. A shot in the dark, but I predict mobile gaming will, by the end of summer, have notable declines caused by…
4. PS Vita and 3DS will have a great year. It’s risky to predict the 3DS having a stellar year against the Vita, and almost impossible to think Nintendo can beat this year’s lineup, but I predict console handhelds will do very well.
5. 2012 will be a year of new IP’s. 2011 was the year of 3’s, sequels, and reiterations. I predict new properties will excel, or at least be announced.
6. Indie games won’t do so hot. I think we’re still a few years away from seeing the revolution people are predicting from indie games. In fact, I think probably five or more years away. 2012 will actually hurt the movement, as many developers think they can succeed in the wake of Minecraft’s 2011 success.
7. SWTOR will have a great year as new content releases. Players will enjoy Bioware’s ability to support their first MMO well into 2013.
8. GW2 will launch strong and be an early success but peter out after three months.
9. The next EverQuest will be fully revealed. We’ll learn that SOE is finally changing their ways and returning us to the quality of development we saw from MMO’s pre-2004.
10. Dominus will be a sleeper hit and truly impress the MMO community with a December launch.
11. Xbox 360 will have the best year. 2011 seems to have gone the way of PS3… somehow… but 2012 will be all Microsoft’s.
12. The Wii-U will be a let down at first. I’m predicting that the Wii-U will totally dissappoint gamers until the end of 2012 when suddenly it surges and releases amazing titles that give Nintendo the crown until Microsoft and Sony release their new consoles (which will be revealed at E3 2012).
Any last minute predictions of your own?